Independent by design. Transparent about the limits.
Every source measures a different part of the market. The analysis keeps administrative records, completed transactions, company disclosures, advertised inventory and industry estimates separate.
| Evidence source | Primary use | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|
| NZTA fleet status and additions | Active fleet, entry, age, weight and use | The use field may reflect current status rather than use at first registration in historical downloads. |
| NZTA change of registered person | Completed transaction channels | Broad motor-caravan category; registration change is not necessarily the commercial settlement date. |
| Stats NZ | Population, households, housing and demographic capacity | Older-household projections are modelled because a direct forward series is unavailable. |
| THL reporting and merger evidence | Fleet, utilisation, acquisition and retail activity | Financial periods and group RV definitions do not mechanically reconcile to NZTA. |
| Trade Me snapshots | Seller, condition, age and asking-price inventory | Listings are not physical-stock counts, achieved prices or completed sales. |
| Deloitte dealership benchmark | Car-dealer productivity and gross-profit structure | A comparison benchmark, not a motorhome-dealer survey. |
| Industry evidence | Order practice, costs, margins, utilisation and buyer behaviour | Experience and informed estimates are labelled and not presented as national statistics. |
Core definitions
- Active fleet: vehicles in the broad NZTA motor-caravan category at a stated date.
- Addition: a new or used vehicle entering the registered fleet; registration is a delivery event.
- Ownership transfer: a completed change classified by public/trader status.
- Advertised inventory: unique active listing IDs at the snapshot date.
- Older-household fleet equivalent: private-use vehicles divided by estimated households containing someone aged 65+.
- Scenario: a transparent model, not a forecast or company guidance.
Publication rules
- State the observation date beside every snapshot.
- Separate asking from achieved prices.
- Separate physical stock, listings and completed sales.
- Explain acquisitions before describing fleet growth as organic.
- Label estimates and sensitivity assumptions.
- Protect confidential transaction sources.
- Correct material errors and retain an evidence date.
Important interpretation limits
Historical private/rental splits require care because a vehicle can change use after first registration. Monthly records captured at registration during 2020–2024 are preferred where available; 2021–2025 first-registration records are reasonably informative; earlier years may require estimates informed by THL, Apollo and Wilderness fleet evidence.
The active fleet includes vehicles that do not compete with a current coachbuilt motorhome. Weight, age, chassis and body form are used to separate campervans and legacy bus or truck conversions where the data allows.
Evidence note: The public report will carry concise source notes near each chart. Detailed working files remain behind the publication for audit and correction.
Regional ownership: compare vehicles per resident
Numerator: current records with vehicle type MOTOR CARAVAN or body type SELF PROPELLED CARAVAN, and PRIVATE PASSENGER usage. This includes older conversions. It measures vehicles registered for private use, not distinct owners, buying households, or the narrower commercial additions market.
Denominator: Stats NZ provisional estimated resident population at 30 June 2025, Table 4. Penetration is private vehicles divided by all residents, multiplied by 1,000. The national index divides each area’s rate by the national rate and multiplies by 100. The older-population share divides residents aged 65+ by total residents. It is separate from the modelled older-household measure used for national absorption scenarios.
Dates and coverage: the fleet archive is dated 2 July 2026 and treated as the 30 June 2026 snapshot, consistent with the study. Population is one year earlier and rounded. All 67 territorial authorities match; the 12 private records labelled Auckland City are consolidated into Auckland. The 110 unknown-location and two overseas private records stay in the national baseline but are excluded from area comparisons. Territorial authorities can cross regional council boundaries; adjacent catchments are not automatically whole regions.
Retirement interpretation: Pearson correlation is 0.818 and rank correlation 0.818 across the 67 areas, giving each area equal weight. Excluding small populations or the four major cities preserves the relationship. Repeating with 2023 Census denominators gives 0.804. These are geographic associations, not owner-age evidence or causal estimates. Density, wealth, parking and lifestyle are not controlled for.
Sensitivity: private passenger usage is a proxy for ownership. Restricting further to private industry classification gives correlation 0.822; the under-ten-year cohort (2017–2026 model years) gives 0.661. These filters do not identify unique households or establish future demand. Registration location may differ from storage or travel location.
Evidence note: Sources: NZTA raw vehicle fleet data; Stats NZ subnational population estimates, June 2025. Analysis completed 7 September 2026. Explore the regional comparison ↗